New Emerson College Polling/PIX11/The Hill surveys of New York’s 17th and 18th congressional districts find close elections for the two US House seats.
In the race for Congress in the lower Hudson Valley‘s 17th district (which includes all of Rockland and Putnam County, as well as most of Northern Westchester County, and portions of southern Dutchess County) 45% support incumbent Republican Congressman Michael Lawler, while 44% support former congressman Mondaire Jones. Three percent support Working Families Party Anthony Frascone, and 7% are undecided.
“Mondaire Jones is leading among young voters under 40, 51% to 40%, and those in their 40s, 45% to 41%, but trails among voters over 50, 49% to 40%,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “The Working Families Party candidate also pulls 6% among voters under 40.”
Lawler has a 47% favorable rating in the district, while 40% have an unfavorable view of him. Thirteen percent are not familiar with him. Jones has a 40% favorable rating, while 40% have an unfavorable view of him. Twenty percent are not familiar with Jones.
Lawler’s razor-thin 1-point lead is within the survey’s plus or minus 3.8 percent margin of error, which means the race is up for grabs.
Mondaire Jones was first elected in 2020 to succeed the retiring Representative Nita Lowey. In the aftermath of the 2020 redistricting cycle, 18th district incumbent Sean Patrick Maloney announced his intention to run in the new 17th district instead of his existing seat; Jones subsequently opted to run in the 10th district to avoid a primary fight. However, Maloney lost to Republican Mike Lawler in the general election; Lawler subsequently became the first of his party to win this seat since 1981.
In a separate Emerson College poll just north in the 18th District (includes all of Orange County, and most of Dutchess and Ulster Counties. The district includes the cities of Newburgh, Beacon, Kingston, and Poughkeepsie) Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan leads Republican rival Alison Espito 48% to 43%, with nearly 10 percent undecided. That’s just outside the margin of error, still a competitive race.
“There is a sharp gender divide in the 18th district: men break for Esposito 52% to 40%, while women break for Ryan, 54% to 34%,” Kimball added.
A majority of voters (52%) have a favorable view of Ryan, while 37% have an unfavorable view of him and 11% are not familiar with the congressman. Forty-seven percent have a favorable view of Esposito, while 30% have an unfavorable view of her.
The presidential election is neck-and-neck in both NY17 and 18. In the 17th district, 49% support Kamala Harris, and 49% support Donald Trump for president. In the 18th district, 48% support Donald Trump, while 47% support Harris.
The top issue for NY17 voters is the economy (32%), followed by immigration (20%), housing affordability (13%), crime (11%), and threats to democracy (10%). The top issue for NY18 voters is the economy (39%), housing affordability (16%), immigration (14%), threats to democracy (11%), and crime (6%).
Voters were asked if the number of migrants seeking sanctuary in the United States is a crisis, a problem but not a crisis, or not a problem at all. A majority of voters in both districts think it is a crisis: 56% in NY17 and 53% in NY18. Thirty-four percent in NY17 and 35% in NY18 think it is a problem but not a crisis, while 10% in NY17 and 13% in NY18 think it is not a problem at all.
Both contests are among 7 competitive House races in New York’s suburbs and upstate that could determine which party controls the House of Representatives.
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