Hochul Still Leads Blakeman, but With Six Weeks to Go, New York Is Getting Two Very Different Pictures of the Governor’s Race
When we first asked whether the New York governor’s race between Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and Republican Nassau County Executive Bruce Blakeman could become closer than many expected, Siena University had Hochul leading 49% to 39%. That represented a dramatic change from June, when Siena had Hochul ahead 52% to 32%. Siena Research Institute
Now, with less than six weeks before Election Day, we have new numbers—and they make the answer more complicated.
The latest Siena poll, released September 23, has Hochul at 50% and Blakeman at 41%, putting the Republican within nine points. That is essentially unchanged from August, but it means the 20-point Siena margin from June has not returned. Siena also notes that at approximately this point in the 2022 campaign, Hochul led Republican Lee Zeldin 54%-37%, before ultimately winning that election by roughly six points. Siena Research Institute
But another major poll released the same day tells a very different story. Quinnipiac University has Hochul leading 58% to 39%, a 19-point advantage among likely voters. Quinnipiac surveyed 1,026 likely New York voters September 17-20 and reported a margin of error of plus or minus 4.1 percentage points. Quinnipiac University Poll
So rather than pretending we know exactly how close this election is, the responsible conclusion is that the polls disagree significantly about the size of Hochul’s advantage.
Siena Says Nine Points—Quinnipiac Says Nineteen
That 10-point difference between two respected polling organizations should be part of the story. Siena surveyed 1,144 likely voters September 11-17 and reported an overall margin of error of plus or minus 3.9 points for its core questions. Its 50%-41% result suggests a competitive race by modern New York standards, though Hochul remains clearly ahead. Siena Research Institute
Quinnipiac’s numbers are considerably better for Hochul. Its poll has Democrats supporting her 89%-6% and Republicans supporting Blakeman 90%-8%. More importantly, Quinnipiac has Hochul leading independents 51%-45%, while Siena has Blakeman leading independents 44%-39%. Quinnipiac University Poll
That is a major difference because independents were one of the warning signs we identified in August. Siena still sees Blakeman holding a narrow advantage with them, while Quinnipiac sees Hochul ahead. We should therefore be careful about declaring that independents are moving decisively in either direction.
The Regional Numbers Are Changing
The latest Siena numbers also change part of our original analysis. In August, Blakeman led Hochul 49%-41% in the downstate suburbs. In September, Siena has the suburbs essentially even, with Hochul at 48% and Blakeman at 46%. Upstate, Blakeman leads narrowly, 47%-44%, while Hochul maintains an enormous 61%-27% advantage in New York City. Siena Research Institute
That illustrates the difficult electoral mathematics facing Blakeman. A Republican candidate does not necessarily have to win New York City, but a 34-point deficit there requires strong performances elsewhere. If the downstate suburbs are virtually tied rather than leaning Republican, Blakeman’s statewide challenge becomes substantially harder.
At the same time, Siena reports that 49% of likely voters believe New York is headed in the wrong direction, compared with 38% who say it is on the right track. That dissatisfaction gives the challenger an issue to campaign on, but dissatisfaction with the state does not automatically translate into a vote against the incumbent. Siena Research Institute
Affordability and the Economy Remain Central
Blakeman has increasingly centered his campaign on the economy and cost of living, while Hochul is campaigning on her record and arguing that her policies have addressed affordability and other statewide concerns. Recent reporting describes Blakeman emphasizing bread-and-butter economic issues along with crime and immigration. Monorepo Sample1
Siena, however, currently gives Hochul modest advantages over Blakeman on several of those issues. Likely voters give her leads ranging from four to nine points on making prices more affordable, keeping New Yorkers safe and addressing undocumented immigrants living in New York. Siena Research Institute
Quinnipiac similarly identifies the cost of living and economy as being at the top of voters’ minds. That makes the final weeks less about abstract party labels and more about which candidate voters trust to address the financial pressures they experience in their everyday lives. Quinnipiac University Poll
What Happened to the DSA Factor?
We previously raised the possibility that the growing prominence of the Democratic Socialists of America could hurt Hochul with moderates, suburban voters and independents. The latest Siena poll provides an important update: there is not currently evidence in that survey that Mayor Zohran Mamdani’s endorsement is hurting Hochul overall.
Siena found voters saying 50%-30% that Mamdani’s endorsement of Hochul is positive for her campaign. Among independents, 40% called it positive, which Siena described as a plurality. Mamdani himself has a nearly even statewide favorability rating of 46%-44%, while remaining popular among Democrats at 73%-18%. Siena Research Institute
That doesn’t eliminate DSA as a campaign issue, particularly among voters opposed to democratic socialism, but the latest Siena evidence does not support saying that Mamdani’s association is presently pushing the electorate toward Blakeman.
Trump Could Be Blakeman’s Own Complication
The same principle applies on the Republican side. President Donald Trump’s endorsement gives Blakeman support from the country’s most prominent Republican, but Siena finds that New York voters view that endorsement as more negative than positive.
By 51%-30%, voters say Trump’s endorsement is a negative for Blakeman’s campaign. Even 49% of independents call the endorsement a negative, and Trump’s own favorability in New York stands at 34%-63%. Siena Research Institute
That creates an interesting political balance. Blakeman needs an energized Republican base, and Siena has him winning Republicans 88%-8%. But he also needs independents and suburban voters in a state where Trump remains deeply unpopular overall. Hochul faces her own balancing act between New York City’s progressive political movement and moderate suburban voters. Siena Research Institute
The Black Vote Still Cannot Simply Be Assumed
One part of our original analysis remains important: neither party should treat Black voters merely as numbers on an Election Day spreadsheet. Black New Yorkers should be hearing substantive proposals from both candidates on affordability, homeownership, education, public safety, entrepreneurship, taxation and wealth creation.
Democrats historically have enjoyed strong Black support in New York, but support and turnout are different questions. Nationally, organizations involved in voter engagement have reported funding shortfalls this election cycle, including reductions affecting outreach to Black, Latino, rural and younger voters. That national development does not prove Black turnout will decline in New York, but it is another reason campaigns cannot simply assume turnout. AP News
Republicans Still Have to Compete for Black Voters
The Republican challenge is equally significant. Dissatisfaction with Democrats does not automatically produce Republican votes. If Republicans want greater support in Black communities, they have to compete for it with specific policies and sustained engagement rather than assuming dissatisfaction with Democrats will do the work for them.
For Blakeman, that means explaining what his administration would actually do on Black homeownership, small-business growth, education, public safety and the cost of living. Hochul should face the same questions about what five years of her administration have produced and what another four years would deliver.
Black voters deserve to compare those records and proposals for themselves.
October 13 Could Become the Next Major Test
The campaign’s next major moment is already scheduled. Hochul and Blakeman will face each other in a live gubernatorial debate on October 13 at 7 p.m., hosted by Spectrum News from NY1’s Chelsea studios and moderated by Errol Louis and Susan Arbetter. Spectrum News NY1
With the polls presenting such different pictures, the debate gives voters an opportunity to hear the candidates address affordability, taxes, crime, immigration, housing and the direction of New York directly.
So, Is the Race Closer Than We Think?
The answer today is that there is genuine uncertainty about the size of Hochul’s lead. Siena has the race at nine points. Quinnipiac has it at 19. A polling average tracked by The Hill and Decision Desk HQ stood at approximately 49.6% Hochul to 41.5% Blakeman on September 23, incorporating multiple surveys rather than relying on a single poll. The Hill
What we can say is that Hochul leads in every major measure cited here, while the size of that advantage varies substantially. Siena’s June 20-point margin narrowed sharply and has remained around 9-10 points in its last two surveys, while Quinnipiac currently sees a much wider contest. That is not evidence that either candidate will win by a particular margin; it is evidence that voters should be cautious about treating any single poll as the final word.
There are still weeks of campaigning ahead, including the October 13 debate. The most useful question now may not be whether the race is secretly close or comfortably over.
It is which version of this race will New York voters ultimately produce on Election Day?
